Short and Long-run effects of Brexit

In the short-run, a no-deal Brexit is very likely to cause wellbeing losses for the UK population.

  •  Professor David  BlanchflowerProfessor David Blanchflower
    Completely agree
    Maybe a bad brexit lowers well-being but maybe it doesna??t given the Great Recession was not happiness reducing in the UK so who knows

  •  Professor Bruno  FreyProfessor Bruno Frey
    Agree
    It would simply create much uncertainty which is bad for business and society as a whole.

  •  Professor Arie  KapteynProfessor Arie Kapteyn
    Completely disagree
    Uncertainty and unexpected obstacles are likely to be mixed with recriminations

  •  Professor Mariano  RojasProfessor Mariano Rojas
    Neither agree nor disagree
    I really do not know what would happen in the short-run in the case of a no-deal Brexit. We have no previous experiences like this; hence, from a social science perspective this would be an interesting case to study how the well-being of different socio-economic, geographic, demographic and ideological groups reacts to an event such as no-deal Brexit. It would also be an interesting case to study how different experiences of being well behave in such a case; I mean: What happens with positive affect? What happens with negative affect? What happens with life evaluation (BPL)? and What happens with life satisfaction? I hope UK researchers are prepared to carry out this kind of study.

  •  Professor Heinz  WelschProfessor Heinz Welsch
    Neither agree nor disagree
    I have an issue with the notion of "wellbeing losses for the UK population",. First , while there may be losses in wealth for many people, (subjective) wellbeing depends not just on wealth. In Britain, wellbeing seems to be driven a lot by non-material factors like national identity etc. Second, their seems to be a deep polarization of sentiments in the population. My feeling is that the polarization per se may be detrimental to wellbeing. But even that is not clear: some may derive satisfaction from self-identification as Leavers or Remainers. In addition, the "UK population" seems to be divided along national lines, in particular English and Scottish.

  •  Professor Mark   WoodenProfessor Mark Wooden
    Completely agree
    In the short-run at least there will be economic losses arising from restrictions to trade and travel between the UK and Europe -- the end of frictionless zero-tariff trade could be particularly costly. So unless the "psychic" benefits from greater independence from Europe exceed these negative economic consequences, difficult to see how the net effect on population wellbeing could be anything other than negative in the short-run.

  •  Professor Stephen  WuProfessor Stephen Wu
    Neither agree nor disagree
    I think there is quite a bit of uncertainty here, and the effects may change over time. Research by Powdthavee, Plagnol, Frijters, and Clark shows that those who were pro Brexit enjoyed an increase in life satisfaction after the referendum, but overall life satisfaction did not change in aggregate. Meanwhile, Kavetsos, Kawachi, Kyriopoulos, and Vandoros find that overall life satisfaction in the UK decreased relative to a control group, particularly for those with positive EU sentiments.

  •  Professor Ruut  VeenhovenProfessor Ruut Veenhoven
    Agree
    I fore see a small short-term decline, because of a) lower trust in institutions for most Britons, and b) disappointment for remain voters

  •  Professor Ada  Ferrer-i-CarbonnellProfessor Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonnell
    Agree
    No-deal Brexit might have important negative impacts on the economy, especially as there would be no adaptation time for consumers, firms, and the public sector to adapt. There would be no bilateral agreements with the EU that would make the short term situation harder. In addition, the no-deal Brexit will negatively impact mobility of UK citizens within Europe (also to Ireland), especially if there is no time to sign bilateral country agreements. All of this will reduce the wellbeing of the UK population.

  •  Professor Paul  FrijtersProfessor Paul Frijters
    Completely agree
    The disruption of trade relations involved in a no-deal Brexit is almost certain to lead to unemployment and an adjustment period for the UK economy. Both unemployment and large-scale adjustment invariably cause wellbeing losses. We saw this in Eastern Europe when their trading system collapsed in 1990; we saw it in the US during the GFC of 2009; and we're even seeing it in India right now where the disruption caused by large-scale adjustment is also causing a lot of short-run misery. The short-run wellbeing effects of a no-deal Brexit are thus bound to be negative.

  •  Professor Martin  BinderProfessor Martin Binder
    Neither agree nor disagree
    I want to say 'yes' but we would have to look at the different channels through which this can impact well-being. If the economic situation worsens, then through lower incomes and more unemployment, there would be a likely decrease in well-being for some. But what about the positive identity utility gain for those who voted in favor of Brexit?

  •  Doctor Maarten  Vendrik Doctor Maarten Vendrik
    Agree
    The resulting strong increase in obstacles and transaction costs in trade with other European countries and the ensuing general economic stagnation are very likely to cause wellbeing losses for the UK population.

  •  Doctor Anke   Plagnol Doctor Anke Plagnol
    Completely agree
    The referendum itself already caused divisions among voters. A no-deal Brexit is likely to increase the frustration felt by those who prefer to remain in the EU. Most of those who voted to leave the EU did not envision a no-deal Brexit. Thus, there will likely be negative well-being outcomes of a no-deal Brexit due to several reasons 1. the effect of negative economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit on well-being and 2. residents's disappointment about how Brexit was achieved.

  •  Professor Daniel  SgroiProfessor Daniel Sgroi
    Completely agree
    There is a general consensus among economists that no-deal Brexit would be likely to damage the economy, threaten jobs, generate uncertainty and deal specific harm to certain key sectors such as health and manufacturing. Given all of this, the probability of wellbeing losses for the UK population is high.

  •  Professor Wenceslao  UnanueProfessor Wenceslao Unanue
    Completely disagree
    A Brexit decision seems to be an individualistic decision instead a EU society decision. Unfortunately, individualism is related to higher ill-being and lower well-being. In addition, Brexit will impairs the chance people from the UK have for knowing and building personal human relations with people from other countries which will not be allowed to enter the UK and sharing with locals. Further, a no-deal Brexit may stop the previous negative consequences above-hypothesized on well-being.





In the long-run (decades), I see wellbeing opportunities in Brexit.

  •  Professor David  BlanchflowerProfessor David Blanchflower
    Neither agree nor disagree
    No idea and neither does anyone else this is a ridiculous question

  •  Professor Bruno  FreyProfessor Bruno Frey
    Agree
    A Brexit could in the long-run rejuvenate Britain.

  •  Professor Arie  KapteynProfessor Arie Kapteyn
    Disagree
    The winners may be happy for a while, but is hard to see how this makes the country happier. Of course the problem with this is that we will never know the counterfactual, so we won't be able to test the wellbeing implications

  •  Professor Mariano  RojasProfessor Mariano Rojas
    Disagree
    Of course, many things may happen in the long run and Brexit does not completely determine UK's and EU's future. However, I believe that there are less wellbeing opportunities in a project that emphasizes exclusion and separation than in one that emphasizes inclusion and community. Human beings have more wellbeing opportunities when they aim at coming together rather than moving apart, when they approach others as fellows rather than as foreigners, and when they focus on all aspects of human beings rather than on the economic aspect alone.

  •  Professor Heinz  WelschProfessor Heinz Welsch
    Neither agree nor disagree
    This is very hard to say. Much will depend on whether the economic, social and psychological divide within the country will be overcome.

  •  Professor Mark   WoodenProfessor Mark Wooden
    Neither agree nor disagree
    The impact of Brexit in the long-term is very difficult to assess. New trade arrangements will be entered into, including with Europe. In this respect the UK should be no different than any other non-European country. Perhaps the bigger issue is whether there are negative consequences for political relationships. The European project was, in my mind, first and foremost a political union -- a response to a long history of division and conflict. It would thus be unfortunate, and very damaging to population wellbeing, if political tensions were to increase as a result of Brexit. Particularly problematic here is what Brexit means for the border between the Republic of Ireland and the UK. If a hard border is re-instated this might re-ignite old political hostilities in that part of the world.

  •  Professor Stephen  WuProfessor Stephen Wu
    Neither agree nor disagree
    Not sure about this either.

  •  Professor Ruut  VeenhovenProfessor Ruut Veenhoven
    Disagree
    I foresee a greater long-term decline, due to a) lower economic growth and b) greater international isolation. Both these developments will reduce choice for individual Britons.

  •  Professor Ada  Ferrer-i-CarbonnellProfessor Ada Ferrer-i-Carbonnell
    Neither agree nor disagree
    Depending on individuals tastes and preferences, well-being might increase in the long term, once individuals and the economy adapt to the new situation (even more if bilateral agreements are signed). For example, depending on the importance that individuals attach to national sovereignty or depending on how aligned individuals are with the UK government and justice system, well-being might increase for some. Similarly, depending on individual tastes for international or national goods, a possible devaluation of the pound might lead to long term increases in well-being for some part of the population, while the UK products (including universities) become more competitive in the international market.

  •  Professor Paul  FrijtersProfessor Paul Frijters
    Agree
    In the long-run, wellbeing is not about a bit more or less GDP but about basic public services and social relations. A no-deal Brexit could be used to re-imagine the UK as a place that puts sustainable high-quality community life at the top of its priorities. Life outside the EU has many disadvantages, but does come with one possible advantage, which is that it is easier to choose a distinct path that weens the country off its obsession with material wealth and orients itself more to the enjoyment of life. I am skeptical that this would happen, but its possible.

  •  Professor Martin  BinderProfessor Martin Binder
    Neither agree nor disagree
    -

  •  Doctor Maarten  Vendrik Doctor Maarten Vendrik
    Agree
    If the economic problems that a Brexit is expected to cause are sufficiently solved in the long run (including a good trade treaty with the EU), the part of the population that likes to feel more independent from the EU may become more satisfied with the general situation.

  •  Doctor Anke   Plagnol Doctor Anke Plagnol
    Completely disagree
    Polarisation in the population is likely to continue as long as Brexit affects the economy and political debates.

  •  Professor Daniel  SgroiProfessor Daniel Sgroi
    Completely disagree
    It is very hard to predict with accuracy decades ahead, but most predictive studies seem to suggest linerging negative consequences for the economy and for wellbeing in general. There are also long-run concerns about the negative impact of Brexit on peace, especially in Northern Ireland, which would have serious negative consequences for wellbeing. On this basis it is difficult to see the potential for wellbeing opportunities in Brexit.

  •  Professor Wenceslao  UnanueProfessor Wenceslao Unanue
    Completely disagree
    If the question refers to subjective, hedonic and/or eudaimonic well-being, I dona??t see opportunities of Brexit for UK people's well-being. Based on my previous answer, I think Brexit will produce losses in UK well-being. Obviously, I am not considering money issues. My answers are based on the assumption that GDP, income, etc. are hold constant.